Tag Archives: merge episodes

Survivor 33 Pre Merge Alliance Analysis

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13 Players, 3 alliances, 2 swing votes, 7 for a majority, nine for a super majority, and 1 merge boot.

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The biggest alliance is the Kappa Kappa Survivor/ Tri-force alliance.  Int he final fifteen they had a very high seven players, but the last two players voted out in a row, Figgy and Michaela, were in their alliance, and two members, Will and Jay flipped.  I think that at least Jay and Will are still tight and that Taylor and Michelle will go back to them giving them four.  Hannah was in their alliance.  I think Michelle will keep her with them, but she may join the Paul alliance (more on them later).

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The alliance once had six members.  They then went into the merge with only three (Christ, Bret, and Sunday), but all of them survived the swap.  I think these three have become fairly tight.  They can realistically get Zeke to join them.

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The socially awkward alliance has only three members, but they also have an immunity idol.  They are Ken, David, and Jessica.

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Zeke and Adam were earlier in an alliance, but I think they are both free agents who may turn on each other.  For two episodes Zeke was in a tribe with the leader of each alliance, which means he has his choice on who to join, and he knows David has an idol.  Adam currently has no affiliations with the Paul alliance, but he may join them.

                                        Prediction

Chris aggressively targets the Kappa Kappa Survivor alliance by trying to bring in both Gen X alliances and Zeke to have seven people.  Zeke is fine with it, but they do not recruit Adam well making him nervous of Chris.  Ken, Adam, and Jessica do not want to work with Chris, and Michelle pulls them over.  David joins his alliance giving them a super majority of 9-4 and all three idols.  Chris is the merge boot unless he wins immunity, then Bret is the merge boot.

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Survivor Kaoh Rong Episode 7: Pick to Win Down

After Episode 1 I picked Neal to win it all.  Like season 25, Philippines, my episode 1 pick was medically evacuated.  According to Stephen Fishback Neal has already revealed the bulge in his pocket was not actually the idol but some fabric. Note to self do not carry around anything in my pockets.  Good bye Neal.  You were shown to be a great provider.  You did really well at the challenges.  You were good at strategizing, and you found an idol.  Your only problems were your attempts to not be a threat did not work.

I have been hearing a few fans call this the worst merge episode ever.  I agree with them (at least since Heroes vs. Villains when I became a super fan).  It was really disappointing.  It had two redeeming qualities.  One was the scramble for power of every merge episode ever.  The other was I really enjoyed the Aubry-Neal alliance and we finally saw more of it that was not in a secret scene.  Aubry was also really funny especially with the Oregon Trail reference.  Last time I played the more advanced version my group mutinied and left me.

What will the balance of power be next?  The title of next episode says it will be Beauty vs. Brawn and Aubry got a heavy winners edit indicating the Brain’s will get an episode to be in charge.  The problem with wier’s edits it PRobst seems to hate this season.  Could it then be we have no good winner?

I think going with the Brawn is a bad idea.  Two seasons ago everyone wanted to go with the unlikable people and they ganged up.  Only the largest immunity run in the games history stopped them.

My big winers are

Nick for winning immunity just like I predicted when I saw the press photos.

Aubry for realizing they are in trouble and really reading people well

Scot for taking charge and gathering a majorit alliance.

Most likely to go next are

  1.  Nick
  2. Jason
  3. Debbie