Survivor 33 Pre Merge Alliance Analysis

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13 Players, 3 alliances, 2 swing votes, 7 for a majority, nine for a super majority, and 1 merge boot.

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The biggest alliance is the Kappa Kappa Survivor/ Tri-force alliance.  Int he final fifteen they had a very high seven players, but the last two players voted out in a row, Figgy and Michaela, were in their alliance, and two members, Will and Jay flipped.  I think that at least Jay and Will are still tight and that Taylor and Michelle will go back to them giving them four.  Hannah was in their alliance.  I think Michelle will keep her with them, but she may join the Paul alliance (more on them later).

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The alliance once had six members.  They then went into the merge with only three (Christ, Bret, and Sunday), but all of them survived the swap.  I think these three have become fairly tight.  They can realistically get Zeke to join them.

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The socially awkward alliance has only three members, but they also have an immunity idol.  They are Ken, David, and Jessica.

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Zeke and Adam were earlier in an alliance, but I think they are both free agents who may turn on each other.  For two episodes Zeke was in a tribe with the leader of each alliance, which means he has his choice on who to join, and he knows David has an idol.  Adam currently has no affiliations with the Paul alliance, but he may join them.

                                        Prediction

Chris aggressively targets the Kappa Kappa Survivor alliance by trying to bring in both Gen X alliances and Zeke to have seven people.  Zeke is fine with it, but they do not recruit Adam well making him nervous of Chris.  Ken, Adam, and Jessica do not want to work with Chris, and Michelle pulls them over.  David joins his alliance giving them a super majority of 9-4 and all three idols.  Chris is the merge boot unless he wins immunity, then Bret is the merge boot.

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