Monthly Archives: November 2016

Survivor 33 Final 9 Survivor Metrics

Image result for survivor david

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

The first merge challenge was worth 7 points due to having 13 people. Losing it will cost 0.58.  That meant Will had 107 and everyone else had 99.42 points.

Afterwards Bret, Chris, David, Ken, Sunday and Taylor won a reward.  That is 1.08 points for each of them and it will cost Zeke, Jay, Adam, Hannah, Jessica, and Will 1.08  For immunity Ken won 6.5 points.  Everyone else lost 0.59.  The scores going into the double episode are

Ken 107

Will  105.33

Bret/Chris/David/Sunday/Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Zeke/Jay/Adam/Hannah/Jessica 97.75

For todays challenges first at the final eleven the challenges are worth six points, except only ten people competed for reward moving it to 5.5 points.  Winning or losing was for plus or minus 1.1 points.  Jay did not participate.  For immunity David won 6 points, and everyone else lost 0.6.  In the final 10 David did not participate for reward making it worth 5 points.  Winning would gain 1.67.  Losing would cost 0.83.  Bret, Zeke, and Sunday won.  For immunity Jay won 5.5 points.  Everyone else lost 0.61

David 104.2

Ken 103.86

Will 102.19

Jay 101.55

Bret/Sunday 101.47

Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Zeke 99.31

Chris 98.21

Adam/Hannah 96.81

Jessica 94.61

Surprisingly David is just barely in first place.

 

 

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Survivor 33 Pre Merge Alliance Analysis

Image result for survivor millennials vs gen x merge

13 Players, 3 alliances, 2 swing votes, 7 for a majority, nine for a super majority, and 1 merge boot.

Image result for survivor millennials vs gen x merge

The biggest alliance is the Kappa Kappa Survivor/ Tri-force alliance.  Int he final fifteen they had a very high seven players, but the last two players voted out in a row, Figgy and Michaela, were in their alliance, and two members, Will and Jay flipped.  I think that at least Jay and Will are still tight and that Taylor and Michelle will go back to them giving them four.  Hannah was in their alliance.  I think Michelle will keep her with them, but she may join the Paul alliance (more on them later).

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The alliance once had six members.  They then went into the merge with only three (Christ, Bret, and Sunday), but all of them survived the swap.  I think these three have become fairly tight.  They can realistically get Zeke to join them.

Image result for survivor millennials vs gen x kena nd david

The socially awkward alliance has only three members, but they also have an immunity idol.  They are Ken, David, and Jessica.

Image result for survivor millennials vs gen x zeke and adam

Zeke and Adam were earlier in an alliance, but I think they are both free agents who may turn on each other.  For two episodes Zeke was in a tribe with the leader of each alliance, which means he has his choice on who to join, and he knows David has an idol.  Adam currently has no affiliations with the Paul alliance, but he may join them.

                                        Prediction

Chris aggressively targets the Kappa Kappa Survivor alliance by trying to bring in both Gen X alliances and Zeke to have seven people.  Zeke is fine with it, but they do not recruit Adam well making him nervous of Chris.  Ken, Adam, and Jessica do not want to work with Chris, and Michelle pulls them over.  David joins his alliance giving them a super majority of 9-4 and all three idols.  Chris is the merge boot unless he wins immunity, then Bret is the merge boot.