Survivor Game Changers Post Episode 1 Winner Pick

Survivor is back.  Unlike most seasons I had a winner pick before it began (Sarah), and like most All-Star seasons I will stick with it.  She is smart enough, and she seems to have learned from her past mistakes like lording her greatness over people.  She also has a small threat even with Tony gone.  If I had to make a pick from Mana I would go with Jeff. No one is bothering thinking of outing him.  Last season my winner pick got ninth and the backup got tenth, so I am hoping for a better result this time.

Top 10 School House Rock Songs

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I know I do not like Disney songs, but these are great.  In the 1970s and 1980s these were between the ABC shows targeted at children.  The creators assumed that no one really cared about them, but when their viewers grew up they learned their viewers actually often only watched the shows for the songs between them, and they were released to video where I saw them.

                 Number 10: I’m Just a Bill

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Here is an iconic song about the government that is sometimes use in college to explain it.  Besides that it has an easy to root for protagonist an audience surrogate.  The congressmen are funny, and it is very catchy.

Number 9:Rufus Xavier Sarsaparilla (The Pronoun song)

For the most part this song is just really funny.

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Oddly they play this song in the VHS before the noun song, despite mentioning nouns many times here.  Still it also has some really good visuals like them all getting on the bus.

     Number 8: Naughty Number Nine

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Sadly, I cannot honestly call this the ninth best song.  Unlike “I’m Just a Bill” this has a villain protagonist that we keep waiting to see the mouse have the last laugh, and it finally happens at the end when he escapes, after it looks like the segment is already over.  He went through so much pain, and it shows a small victory can be all that is needed, while still helping me learn nines better.

7. No More Kings

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As a history major I have known since second grade there are some historical inaccuracies in here, but this song and realizing the inaccuracies helped me remember them.   Besides that it has the revolution, but focused more on gathering the troops than fighting (more on that later), and why they decided to fight.

6. Victim of Gravity

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This song is always great for a laugh with how many problems the protagonist has, and it is great.  The visuals are good for both humor and what the world would be without gravity.

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Again the humor really makes this song.

5. My Hero Zero

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I know I have heard this analogy a few times, but this is the best discussion of zero as a super hero.  It did not really teach me anything except for cavemen using math, but it has such great music, and super thin necks (look at him above).

4. Telegraph Line

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I do not think many other fans like this as much as I do.  It has a very catchy chorus, and the verses tell a clear story that unlike “Victim of Gravity” has a clearly happy ending from the nervous system.  I think this is the most educational video in Science Rock, even if it is dated.

3. Interjections

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This is the funniest School House Rock song.   It is one funny and unexpected visual and interjection after another.

2. Shot Heard ‘Round the World

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This one is about The Revolutionary War.  Obviously it is exciting, and with the exception of parts of the Bunker Hill part is very accurate with a romanticized view for America.  It will keep the audience remembering some major parts like France entering the war, Yorktown, Bunker Hill, The Old North Bridge, and crossing the Delaware.

1. Tyrannosaurus Debt

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I do not think this is many other people’s favorite song.  Money Rock is not too popular, but every Schoolhouse Rock fan has something in it they enjoy like “This for That,” or “Where the Money Goes.”  This is the song that made me keep playing this video over and over as a nine year old trying to understand the national debt.  It was not until I looked through some fifth grade textbooks I found another source talking about it, so I had previously assumed that being the world’s largest economy the US was debt free.  Now I knew they had a debt of over five trillion dollars (now we wish it was that small).  I watched it over and over to see if the ending was talking about it starting to shrink or just hope for the future.  This is their most educational video and the scariest one.

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Schoolhouse Rock are some of the only music videos I enjoy, as they knew to entertain and then education could come.  Besides nostalgia they are fun to watch and remember how much edutainment they had.

 

Survivor Metrics Season 33 Final Rankings

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ (it no longer exists sadly) a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

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The first challenge was won by David and worth 3.5 points.  The second and third ones were won by Ken and worth 3 and 2.5 points respectively. Losing the first challenge cost 0.7, the second one cost 0.75, and the third one cost 0.83.

The final standings are

1. Ken 111.27

2. Jay 109.45

3. David 103.56

4. Will 10o.3

5. Taylor 99.91

6. Michelle 99.42

7. Sunday 98.89

8. Chris 98.21

9. Zeke 98.06

10. Bret 97.44

11. Adam 97.43

12. Jessica 94.61

13. Hannah 91.97

Ken is the physical champion.

DTV Wonders: Dragonheart a New Beginning

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Sure I have a glaring very negative review, but I have mostly reviewed DTV sequels where they work nearly best, as an animated film.  The place they would natural work worst is as a live action fantasy to a film that a sequel just feels wrong, like Dragonheart.  As a live action film they cannot simply replace actors, and with a  lower budget key special effects would be cheaper, and it is a harder to simply adopt a cheaper style.

The one returning presence is this film has the same producer as the original.  The film is directed by Doug Lefler, who besides this has directed no movies, but at least he directed some episodes of Hercules: The Legendary Journies, and The Last Legion seven years later.  By direct to video standard this was an expensive film, as it cost 11.4 million dollars (one fifth of the original’s budget), and based on what I heard that is way more than an animated sequel.  A live action fantasy film is the worst thing to make work with a low budget, but sometimes looks are deceiving, but sadly this is not one of those times.  I think what this movie needed was mystery, and it gave none.

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For the viewers who will not see the original Dragonheart, or need their memory refreshed it ends with the Dragon, Draco, one of the two main characters dying.  This makes further adventures hard.  This film takes place years alter, and through exposition old Bowen got this egg from his old cave.  Apparently Draco who had been away from his cave for twelve years never checked on the egg or told Bowen about it despite having ample time before dying.  Also it is specifically mentioned Bowen found it right before dying of old age.  For being on his death bed Bowen looks incredibly strong.  The egg hatched in Brother Gilbert’s monastery, which is now controlled by Friar Peter.  Also there is a two tailed comet and according to a prophecy (no explanation for whether it is reliable) says that when it passes the moon in a week an evil will use a dragon’s heart.  Finally a sable boy named Geoff wants to be a night.  Despite having quite a bit of tell, do not show the exposition is actually not a weakness.  The events are both shown and told later, and it is surprisingly both quick and easy to follow.

The film’s real opening is Geoff watching the knights pass, as Friar Peter reminds him to accomplish his chores.  We then get to a problem with a lack of unity in plot.  Quickly the film cuts to Lord Osric being promoted to main advisor, and it is practically stated by the narrator the king is suffering from a mysterious mental illness caused by Osric, and Osric is running the kingdom.  Osric can actually be kind of entertaining, but for everything else this film needed a mysterious villain instead of an obvious one.  To describe his basic plan is that he wants a Dragonheart to make him immortal.  For now he is settling for simple power, and everyone in the kingdom will wear a tunic color coded based on class.  He will also make everyone live by the old code, which is actually quite villainous, as Bowen was against that since it cannot be forced.

 

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Mansel, our narrator, is a monk in charge of watching the young dragon, but Geoff gets by him to explore a place that he knows Mansel refuses to talk about, hence it must be important.  He finds a sword and…

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bad special effects.  His name is Drake, and drake as never been outside or done anything that dragons are expected to do.

I know I am changing to different character too much, but that is because the film changes around every thirty seconds, and I cannot talk about drake and Geoff’s next discussion without first revealing how bad Friar Peter.  Kwon and Lian, two strangers from the East, arrive to discuss the prophecy.  They heard about Drake due to Brother Gilbert’s old writings about dragons and want to stay until the prophecy’s time is gone.  First Friar Peter calls Brother Gilbert moderately dumb, okay.  He then calls him a bad poet. what? Brother Gilbert is quoting The King James Bible over six hundred years before it will be written probably meaning in the Dragonheart Universe his old poetry was used to make it.  Worst of all friar Peter says he does not believe in dragons, due to the Bible.  I have only read the Bible three times, and I know there are hordes of dragons in it described as real beasts.  Friar Peter asks them to see Osric, and he asks them to leave to avoid a peasant panic.  If he was not an obvious villain the audience would see him as a reasonable authority figure with a classist flaw.  Mansel tells Drake Friar Peter is dead, presumably struck dead by God.  Drake takes the news badly, but he does go outside the next day making his mood seem better than usual.

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In outrage at being deemed a commoner with no chance at moving up and becoming a knight Geoff throws his tunic off a cliff and demands that Drake fly him away  Drake refuses and Geoff goes to get his tunic except he gets cornered by some of Osric’s men who are angry at him for not having his uniform tunic.  Basically they are running things like high school with lashings instead of demerits.  Also the secret dragon talked in plain view where the Easterners saw him, and they decide to save Geoff as he can lead them to the dragon.  Lian unarmed wipes out all of the knights, which is probably the worst fight scene I have ever seen.  It does not make Lian seem awesome, but Osric’s minions look like incredibly weak.  It also last a reallllllllllllllly long time.  This whole horrible fight is practically useless except giving them a reason to be allies, s Geoff is again corned by knights and knocked off a cliff.  This time Drake lies and saves him, and Geoff thanks him by telling him to pull quite so hard.  To make it worse the flying effects are really bad.  Already no one is likeable with the possible exception of Mansel (he has nothing important to do, but he offers some comedy), the story is really predictable, and the action and special effects are really bad.

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Everyone saw it, and the peasants are mad, but obvious villain to the rescue.  He wants Drake as “Protector of the Realm,” and Geoff is now in a huge position of power.  He tells them to let the Easterners stay, and can now wear a red tunic of a knight.  This flaw does not really go anywhere, but Geoff has a problem with only accepting something if it suits him.  When the tunic marks him as a peasant he hates it.  When it marks him as important he loves it.  When Osric considers him unimportant he hates him, and when Osric values him he thinks Osric s better than Drake.  I do not think this goes anywhere other thank making Geoff seem selfish, but it is at least fun to notice and shows potential with a better script.

Mansel being the narrator decides he had better become important.  He says Drake is the subject of the prophecy.  Geoff says Drake is too innocent.  Mansel has a comeback that the prophecy states it will use a dragon, but Geoff says he will protect drake, and finally Mansel accuses Geoff of helping it.  If not for the narration I would have no idea these two are supposed to be best friends.  Also by not describing everything Geoff is being edited to be way nicer than he is.  Kwon and Lian decide to kill Drake, but Drake knows something I wrong, and ignores them.  They then decide Drake gets to live, as he passed a test.  Again Geoff was too busy training to be a knight with Osric to notice making his protecting abilities beyond horrible.  Also Osric has gained his trust with bare minimum flattery.

The Easterners agree to train Drake, and tell him about Dragon hearts, like how they can be split in two to help a human.  Also they are carrying around with no security the heart to an ancient evil dragon named Griffin, which can still be put in a human, and… Why have they not destroyed this obviously evil thing that fits the prophecy so well?  They wanted to kill drake with minimal evidence he was evil, so why is this inanimate object that can fulfill the prophecy, but not fight back yet burned already.  It is made clear later fire can destroy it.  There is no mention of it having any type of value.  At least do not carry it with only two guards around literally all the way from China to Britain where anyone could use I to fulfill the prophecy of bringing evil back.  Well, this twist that Griffin is the villain is pretty obvious except for how he fits with Osric who is constantly working on his evil plan on camera.  What the audience knows is he will now replace the king if he dies, he wants half of Drake’s heart, and he wants a war.  Griffin wanted the extermination of humans, so maybe an evil vs. evil fight.  Maybe instead of being a knight who slays an evil dragon Geoff will have to get an evil knight to turn good making him a hero maker to ironically his mentor.  Two obvious villains with no common goals can surprisingly make many options.

 

The training scenes can be funny, and Geoff does get called out on not helping Drake enough.  Also due to borrowing his suspicious full body coat Mansel gets mistaken for Kwon, and Osric’s men kidnap him, and Mansel is now in the dungeon. Osric sends more men to capture Kwon and Lian resulting in another horrible fight where Osric’s men look like complete incomptetents.  Lian and Kwon are winning easily with fans (that are like shields as they deflect sword blades).  The Easterners get swords and now have an even easier looking win, but Osric arrives.  Again as Geoff does what is best for Geoff unlike last time he fully trusts Osric’s wonderful argument that… “These foreigners are not like you and me.”  Geoff surrenders and Kwon and Lian follow.  I guess they are different, considering that is all it takes for them to surrender.  Maybe if Geoff came off as important to their fight or even goals now that drake was close to them too, or if the guards were not so horrible.  To make their surrender even more ridiculous when marched to the dungeons tied up and weaponless the guards are still terrified of them and not trying to hide it.  Also Mansel is wearing a diaper like thing, and only a diaper like piece of underwear.

After awful fight after awful fight we finally get a legitimately well done plan and wording by Osric, genuinely good stuff from Geoff and Drake, and a very good battle scene. To add to the good without the bad script and plot being around it is easier to notice that the angles, cinematography, backgrounds, and sets look very similar to the original and still match this film.  This is not a horrible film, but besides this scene over an hour into the movie it is just consistently bad or poor.  If the whole movie could capture the cost effective and exciting nature of this fight, the intelligence of both hero and villain, and emotion of nearly repeating Draco’s mistake in the original.  Osric’s plan is for some of his minions to pretend to be enemy warriors.  He will save Geoff from one of the, and he will pretend to get injured in the process.  As Geoff trusts him now and will feel indebted to him and get Drake to give him half of his heart.  This plan was not revealed, making me wonder if he did do a legitimate heroic act, get injured, will get the heart, and will turn into a hero later. Instead Geoff discovers he is faking and gets Drake to not give him the heart.  All of the troops turn on Drake and Geoff, but Drake finally masters fire breathing, and he gets them out of there.  Finally this movie is turning around, unless this was just a fluke great scene, but…

 

This film wastes no time confirming it was just a fluke.  Lian uses a bad humming sound to woo a guard into getting close enough for him to be knocked out in one punch, and of course he is the only one, and he loses the keys.  They find Griffin’s heart, and Osric gets back and realizes it is a dragon’s heart.  Out of nowhere Osric reveals what would have otherwise been a good villain backstory.  Griffin was cursed before he died to be reborn into the form he hated, most, man.  Osric is Griffin reborn.  Besides coming out of nowhere it also has the flaw that he was reborn a wealthy lord, instead of say a stable boy.  He grabs the heart after Lian throws it in a fire (should have done that years ago you idiots), Osric kills Kwon with an arrow, and he puts the heart in his chest cavity turning him into

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I owe Drake’s design an apology.  To the movie’s credit the dragons do not look horrible, they just smile and fly horribly and look bad.  I can still believe they are talking and there.  He says he will enslave humanity…

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It has been well established a really good knight is a perfectly good match for a dragon.  One dragon is not powerful enough to take out 100 knights, much less sixty million people.  Drake is mesmerized by a fellow scaled fire breather and nearly joins Griffin until Geoff points out how evil he is, and Drake remembers how he was nearly ticked into giving him half of his heart.  Instead they have a very bad looking duel (a low budget live-action film should stay away from fantasy action), and Drake wins, Geoff gets injured, and Drake shares his heart with him.

That was Dragonheart a new Beginning.  It had good sets, an okay human villain, and not much else.  There was a good movie getting ready to come out in the seventy-five percent the way through battle scene, and Ostric had plenty of potential, but Geoff never learned his lesson about not being selfish.  Mansel and Lian never really go anywhere.  Drake trusts too much, and learns to trust the right people, at least he had a complete arc.  It is no where near as bad as Lion King II, but it is worse than The Land Before Time XIII.

Survivor Season 33 Metrics, Final 6

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

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With eight people left the first challenge was for 4.5 points. Losers lost 0.64.  Jay won it.  Ken then won a challenge worth 4.  Losing would cost 0.67.  The new score is.

Jay 110.15

Ken 106.47

David 101.64

Adam 99.71

Will 10o.3

Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Bret/Sunday 98.89

Chris 98.21

Zeke 98.06

Jessica 94.61

Hannah 94.25

Jay is well in the lead, but he may need to win out.

Survivor Season 34: Final 8 Metrics

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

Both challenges were individual worth five points.  Each loser would lose 0.63.  The seven players who lost both challenges lose 1.25.  Jay and Adam in total gain 4.27.

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Jay 105.82

David 102.95

Ken 102.61

Adam 101.08

Will 10o.94

Bret/Sunday 100.12

Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Chris 98.21

Zeke 98.06

Hannah 95.56

Jessica 94.61

Jay may be in the minority, but they must get rid of him soon.

Survivor 33 Final 9 Survivor Metrics

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At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

The first merge challenge was worth 7 points due to having 13 people. Losing it will cost 0.58.  That meant Will had 107 and everyone else had 99.42 points.

Afterwards Bret, Chris, David, Ken, Sunday and Taylor won a reward.  That is 1.08 points for each of them and it will cost Zeke, Jay, Adam, Hannah, Jessica, and Will 1.08  For immunity Ken won 6.5 points.  Everyone else lost 0.59.  The scores going into the double episode are

Ken 107

Will  105.33

Bret/Chris/David/Sunday/Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Zeke/Jay/Adam/Hannah/Jessica 97.75

For todays challenges first at the final eleven the challenges are worth six points, except only ten people competed for reward moving it to 5.5 points.  Winning or losing was for plus or minus 1.1 points.  Jay did not participate.  For immunity David won 6 points, and everyone else lost 0.6.  In the final 10 David did not participate for reward making it worth 5 points.  Winning would gain 1.67.  Losing would cost 0.83.  Bret, Zeke, and Sunday won.  For immunity Jay won 5.5 points.  Everyone else lost 0.61

David 104.2

Ken 103.86

Will 102.19

Jay 101.55

Bret/Sunday 101.47

Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Zeke 99.31

Chris 98.21

Adam/Hannah 96.81

Jessica 94.61

Surprisingly David is just barely in first place.

 

 

Survivor 33 Pre Merge Alliance Analysis

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13 Players, 3 alliances, 2 swing votes, 7 for a majority, nine for a super majority, and 1 merge boot.

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The biggest alliance is the Kappa Kappa Survivor/ Tri-force alliance.  Int he final fifteen they had a very high seven players, but the last two players voted out in a row, Figgy and Michaela, were in their alliance, and two members, Will and Jay flipped.  I think that at least Jay and Will are still tight and that Taylor and Michelle will go back to them giving them four.  Hannah was in their alliance.  I think Michelle will keep her with them, but she may join the Paul alliance (more on them later).

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The alliance once had six members.  They then went into the merge with only three (Christ, Bret, and Sunday), but all of them survived the swap.  I think these three have become fairly tight.  They can realistically get Zeke to join them.

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The socially awkward alliance has only three members, but they also have an immunity idol.  They are Ken, David, and Jessica.

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Zeke and Adam were earlier in an alliance, but I think they are both free agents who may turn on each other.  For two episodes Zeke was in a tribe with the leader of each alliance, which means he has his choice on who to join, and he knows David has an idol.  Adam currently has no affiliations with the Paul alliance, but he may join them.

                                        Prediction

Chris aggressively targets the Kappa Kappa Survivor alliance by trying to bring in both Gen X alliances and Zeke to have seven people.  Zeke is fine with it, but they do not recruit Adam well making him nervous of Chris.  Ken, Adam, and Jessica do not want to work with Chris, and Michelle pulls them over.  David joins his alliance giving them a super majority of 9-4 and all three idols.  Chris is the merge boot unless he wins immunity, then Bret is the merge boot.

Survivor 33 Post Episode 3 top Physical Threats.

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Three episodes into season 33 of Survivor.  There have only been three challenges, and the first one does not give a good indication of physical abilities except for puzzle solving.  The second required a wide range of abilities, like swimming, diving, and throwing.  The third challenge required balance, strength, throwing, and puzzle solving.

 

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         The millennials have treated Hannah as their weakest link.  She sat out the second challenge, and in the third challenge she was given the smallest role.  Mari was a weak link on their team.  In the second challenge she took a very long time to get out of the water.  Will seems to be athletic, but his balance and hunger are an issue.  He was beaten by Paul in episode 2, and he did not balance well in episode 3.  Other than these three out of 10 the Millennials seem to have a tribe that is very strong all the way through.
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        A few other players have no really gotten big roles for impressions, but they seem solid.  Adam and Zeke have not been called to do much, but they have done their jobs well.  Zeke especially did well in the water and in a puzzle.
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         Their best four challenge competitors aligned early.  Figgy is arguably worse at challenges than Zeke, and she is the weakest of this group.  She did very well in the first puzzle, but she played second fiddle to Michelle.  The main reason she is here is she is the only one to carry her bag besides Taylor in episode 3.  Taylor has been unimpressive except his incredible performance in episode 3, where the Millennials successfully designed their strategy around him.  Jay has mostly done the throwing portion.  Michelle is their top competitor.  She lead the Millennials to dominating both puzzles.  The one challenge she did not do the puzzle she tied with Chris at swimming.
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The Gen X tribe has weaker weak links.  Cece was very bad at diving and balancing.  She also seems unaware of her limits.  At least she has god short throwing ability, but that is not needed due to Ken.  Besides her David, Sunday, and Rachel have been weak at the challenges and making puzzle eras with Sunday being the best of them.

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       Their mid tier also only seems to be adequate.  Paul struggles in challenges 1 and 3, but he beat Will convincingly in challenge 2.  Jessica did kind of well in challenge 1, and she helped her team get back in the challenge in episode 2, and they went on to win, yet in challenge 3 she was given the least important role.  Bret has not been much help at all to Gen X, as he struggled at balance badly, but he at least has a good dive.
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They only have two notably good players to their opponents 4.  Chris did notably well in challenge 3, but not nearly as well as Taylor did.  He also only tied with Michelle in challenge 2.  Their only real saving part so far is Ken.  He has been doing incredibly well these last two challenges and outperforming Jay in the same roles.  Good thing for keeping these challenges good the Generation X players probably has the best challenge competitor.
         With these people it is no wonder the Millennials have won two challenges by wide margins and barely lost the other one.  They have a huge puzzle advantage, and a larger group of capable competitors to choose from.  The only thing the Generation Xers have competed with them is throwing and to a lesser extent diving.  Also sparing Cece could really hurt them in future challenges.

 

 

Survivor Season 31 Post Episode 1 Pick to win it all

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Back at Season 26 I predicted Cochran would win after episode one.  I have not been right since, but I have come close.  In season 27 I heard spoilers, so I do not count it.  For season 28 I predicted Woo (2nd place) over L.J. (9th place) and Spencer (4th place).  In season 29 I picked Josh (11th place).  For season 30 I picked Jenn (9th place) over Tyler (7th place) and Mike (almost picked the winner).  In Season 31 I picked Spencer (tied for 2nd), and last season I picked Neal (11th place) over the eventual winner.  Based on the edit the Gen X tribe is doomed, butt he person with the best chance is Jessica.  She seems to have good awareness, and she does not come off as threatening.

From the intro I thought Zeke was doomed, but he quickly grew on me.  He made fire, became friends but not too close with everyone), and he seems to be able to join either alliance.  He is my pick to win it all.